The level of optimism of individual investors and stock market analysts
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26485/SPE/2024/130/7Keywords:
optimism, individual investors, stock market analysts, LOT-R, P-ScaleAbstract
Background: Research in the field of behavioral finance has proven that market participants are subject to psychological errors and inclinations (concerning the cognitive sphere, i.e. opinions and attitudes, and concerning the motivational sphere, i.e. preferences). The heuristics of accessibility, anchoring, affect, representativeness, and the emotional errors of self-confidence, illusion of control, and optimism are the most prominent of the behavioral tendencies in the opinion sphere that are most frequently described in the literature. In their paper, the authors will focus on the occurrence of optimism among capital market participants.
Research purpose: The main goal of this study is to assess the level and distribution of optimism among individual investors and stock market analysts and to examine whether there are discrepancies between the optimism of individual investors and stock market analysts.
Methods: The study was conducted in two stages. The first part was carried out from September 2019 to March 2020 on a sample of 37 active stock market analysts who prepare brokerage recommendations. The second stage was conducted from August to November 2020, and surveyed 1.057 active individual investors. Two psychological tests, the Revised Life Orientation Test (LOT-R) and the Positive Orientation Scale (POS), were used to determine optimism.
Conclusions: The average results of the LOT-R test for stock market analysts (14.38) and individual investors (15.72) ranged from 14 to 18 points, i.e., an average level of optimism. The individual investors and stock market analysts indicated similar levels of disposable optimism measured with the LOT-R test. However, a different result was obtained in the POS test, where the individual investors (31.97) showed a higher level of positive orientation than the stock market analysts (29.49). The added value of the article is the use of psychological tests to study the level of optimism among capital market participants, as well as the comparison of the level of optimism between individual investors and stock market analysts.
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